Before one can assign blame in this socio-economic problem one must look at the entire issue in order to understand how Russia and most of Europe arrived at the current economic situation that affects all of them. As of the year 2000, as many as 12 of 33 European nations (including former eastern block countries) were 100 percent reliant on foreign natural gas importation, while another 7 of the 33 were more than 95 percent reliant. Of those total 19 countries, Russia has been the main supplier of natural gas and LPG (Liquid Propane Gas) (Stern, 12). That natural gas dependence in and of itself hasn't posed a problem to Russia or the dependent nations; what has proved to be a problem is the supply route for the natural gas. Approximately 90 percent of natural gas leaving Russia travels via a Russian/Ukrainian pipeline to the rest of Europe including Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, even including Germany and France (Stern, 14). Russia claims that Ukraine had been "stealing" natural gas, and on January 1, 2009 they completely halted gas imports to Ukraine only to resume limited services four days later stating that Ukraine will only receive partial shipments due to the amount stolen. While this issue seems as if it may boil down to petty accounting problem and business bickering when one looks at the history of negotiations between Russia and the rest of Europe fundamental problems have appeared in the last five years.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Russia has undergone major economic and social restructuring. Russia has been the sole supplier of natural gas for a large portion of Europe for almost two decades, and it had been speculated early on that there was no inherent risk in Russia strong arming other nations either as a group or individually, as there were no potential gains for doing so (Stern 20). This view was altered in January 2006 when Russia's energy company Gazprom, which is directly controlled by the Russian government, essentially did just that and strong armed Ukraine into paying significantly higher prices for natural gas, roughly increasing the price threefold (Nichol, 3). While there was no direct political correlation to this act, two things became evident: first, that Russia was, and still is, willing to demand unreasonable gas price hikes under threat of a complete shut off; and secondly, that these actions, if carried through in the future, would lead to a significant destabilization of the region's political and economic sectors (Victor).
But why has Russia infuriated its neighbors and threatened them twice in front of the international community? In both instances money seems to be the likely factor for Russia's aggressive policies. The incident in 2009 shares a striking to that three years earlier, in that Russia economic situation has been destabilized has lead to them attempting to regain lost capital by using the fact that they have the ability as the sole producer of natural gas to gain unfair leverage in the region. In both cases, when Ukraine has not responded to the price increase Russia has shut off the pipeline (Kramer). The ethical implications of these acts are appalling. Not only is Russia taking advantage of their position as the sole supplier of natural gas to arbitrarily bully other nations they treat the commonwealth of other nations but as collateral damage (commonwealth in this instance being the stability, security and safety of other nations receiving natural gas downstream of Ukraine's pipeline). We find that this characteristic mood swing for Russia, desperately trying to flex their political and economic muscles in a world economy that doesn’t move and bend to their will the way they did just twenty years ago. These acts of bravado were completely unprovoked even in the eyes of the experts before the first act of aggression in 2006, that there was no implication that Russia for any reason would be a force to reckon with regard to retaliation like this in any respect (Stern, 20). So what has changed so significantly in the last few years, not enough to warrant this kind of reckless behavior? Russia’s grasp on the region is absolute, as they control a majority of the natural gas coming into Eastern Europe and several downstream nations.
These incidents, taken in the context of geopolitics can seem sterile, like a business transaction. What’s lost in this interpretation of the event is the lives of the people who this gas cut off affects the most, the people living in the affected countries. From Ukraine to France, people who depend on natural gas for cooking, heating and electricity went without these basic necessities during one of the most punishing times of the year. Countries like Bulgaria were devastatingly impacted during the January 1 gas cut off. Feelings of anger and resentment are carried through the region a "New York Times" piece that ran on January 11 where journalist Dan Bilefsky interviewed those affected in Bulgaria. He reported that not only were people upset at this injustice but they were also fearful for their safety. Infants and the elderly, the most at risk groups for a gas shut off were put into jeopardy throughout the crisis. The government of Bulgaria has commented since the shut off and subsequent reopening that they were seeking an alternative energy option in order to reduce their reliance on Russia's natural gas. One of the proposed options was reopening of previously closed nuclear power plants (Dnevnik), which may end up further destabilizing the region. Whatever the eventual solution is it's important to remember it's not only national reputations at risk here but rather it's the lives of millions of people throughout Europe that are put at risk by Russia's reckless behavior.
Lenin once said, "I don't care what becomes of Russia. To hell with it. All this is only the road to a World Revolution." -1918. The leader of the Soviet Union spoke once that he does not care the fate of Russia, for it was only a stepping stone towards his own vision of world order. Perhaps then, it's best that he never saw what has become of his former state. Russia is forcing its will onto less powerful nations, still waging war just as it did before the fall of Soviet Union, this time without bullets or bomb but rather with the power of economics, the result can be just as brutal however. It isn't just the act of shutting off Europe's gas supply that outrages me and others, but rather the attitude and intent that such a brazen act provokes. Acts such as these put too many lives, careers and economies in turmoil, both financially and physically. Hopefully, in the future Russia will learn that despite its once great power and subsequent twenty year long downfall, their government can interact in a positive way with their European neighbors to promote economic and geo politically stability. It's unclear what the future of Russia's economy is, but we pray that it's a sensible one.
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